Derek J. Koehler

Derek J. Koehler
Professor

Recipient, Premier's Research Excellence Award

Cognitive Psychology
BS (Wisconsin), PhD (Stanford)
Phone: 519-888-4567 x35013
Fax: 519-746-8631
Office: PAS 4050
email: dkoehler@uwaterloo.ca

Research Interests

Derek J. Koehler | Psychology | University of Waterloo

My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence (or cues, e.g., a patient's symptoms) when estimating the probability of an uncertain event (or outcome, e.g., the patient's eventual diagnosis), how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behavior. In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming NBA games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic.

Derek J. Koehler | Psychology | University of Waterloo

Selected Publications

Koehler, D. J., & James, G. (2009). Probability matching in choice under uncertainty: Intuition versus deliberation. Cognition, 113, 123-127.

White, C. M., & Koehler, D. J. (2007). Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 33, 757-768.

Koehler, D. J., & Poon, C. S. K. (2006). Self-predictions overweight strength of current intentions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 42, 517-524.

Brenner, L., Griffin, D., & Koehler, D. J. (2005). Modeling patterns of probability calibration with Random Support Theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 97, 64-81.

Edited Book

Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.; 2004). Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. Oxford, UK: Blackwell.

Downloadable Reprints (click for list)

CV (click for pdf)

Current Courses

Psychology 292: Basic Data Analysis (Winter 2010)
Psychology 458: Psychology of Economic Decisions (Winter 2010)

Past Courses

Psychology 207: Cognitive Processes
Psychology 304: Thinking and Deciding
Psychology 458: How the Mind Works
Psychology 650: Modelling Cognitive Processes
Psychology 776: Judgment and Decision Making

Links

Why Don't We Save More? (podcast interview)
Waterloo Decision Research
Good Intentions, Optimistic Predictions
Writing Wrongs


	Derek J. Koehler Professor Recipient, Premier's Research Excellence Award Cognitive Psychology BS (Wisconsin), PhD (Stanford) Phone: 519-888-4567 x35013 Fax: 519-746-8631 Office: PAS 4050 email: dkoehler@uwaterloo.ca

Research Interests Derek J. Koehler \| Psychology \| University of Waterloo My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence (or cues, e.g., a patient's symptoms) when estimating the probability of an uncertain event (or outcome, e.g., the patient's eventual diagnosis), how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behavior. In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming NBA games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic. Derek J. Koehler \| Psychology \| University of Waterloo Selected Publications Koehler, D. J., & James, G. (2009). Probability matching in choice under uncertainty: Intuition versus deliberation. Cognition, 113, 123-127. White, C. M., & Koehler, D. J. (2007). Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 33, 757-768. Koehler, D. J., & Poon, C. S. K. (2006). Self-predictions overweight strength of current intentions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 42, 517-524. Brenner, L., Griffin, D., & Koehler, D. J. (2005). Modeling patterns of probability calibration with Random Support Theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 97, 64-81. Edited Book Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.; 2004). Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. Downloadable Reprints (click for list) CV (click for pdf) Current Courses Psychology 292: Basic Data Analysis (Winter 2010) Psychology 458: Psychology of Economic Decisions (Winter 2010) Past Courses Psychology 207: Cognitive Processes Psychology 304: Thinking and Deciding Psychology 458: How the Mind Works Psychology 650: Modelling Cognitive Processes Psychology 776: Judgment and Decision Making Links Why Don't We Save More? (podcast interview) Waterloo Decision Research Good Intentions, Optimistic Predictions Writing Wrongs

Department of Psychology